First, in 2014 the global solar industry market size and distribution
2014 global PV market development can be “conservatism” to summarize, China ECIC global PV installed capacity is expected to be able to reach 44GW, 37GW compared with 2013 growth of about 19%. Among them, China, Japan, the US market continued in 2013 three of the obvious advantages, the installed capacity is expected to respectively 10.5GW, 9GW and 6.5GW. European installed capacity market has been declining for three consecutive years, despite strong growth in the United Kingdom to the photovoltaic industry, but further declines in the German and Italian markets, the overall installed capacity is expected to be around 7GW. Emerging markets, in 2014, India, South Africa, Chile and other markets showed a rapid development momentum.
Chart 12007–2014 global PV installed capacity of new cases
A series of measures China China since October 2014 for the introduction of the development of photovoltaic industry itself appears in institutional issues, such as the standard imperfect, power grid construction does not match, reselling “flagging” and so on. Its role is not a short-term, is not a simple problem to solve the problem encountered, but on the PV industry development of the market continues to improve.
Japan and Japan a new round of tariff policy adjustment is about to begin, but the weak recovery in the Japanese economy, land grid capacity close to the peak, and the restart of nuclear power trend became clear, we believe that the Japanese market growth will decline.
United States market in 2014 maintained a stable development in the third quarter of PV installed capacity reached 1.35GW, up 41 percent over last year, for the fourth time in US history, more than one-quarter of installed capacity 1GW. Residential system installed capacity for the first time single-season installed capacity of more than 300MW, compared with last year rose 58 percent; non-residential systems installed up the chain have declined, down 3% compared installed capacity last year; utility scale installed capacity in the third quarter 2014 reach 825MW, these power projects have become the mainstream of American developers to develop.
Chart 2 2011 – The US PV installed capacity in 2016 case
UK British market, awarded by the government deadline larger than 5MW PV plant ROC program is advanced to affect in March 2015, and in 2014 led to PV installed initiated grab mounted massive growth. But the British photovoltaic market, there are still variables policy, in April 2015 the government will revise the current subsidies, while renewable energy Accountability Act would also terminate in 2017.
Second, the photovoltaic industry situation
PV industry in 2014 the situation has improved compared with 2013, PV production scale China remains the world’s first position, also will remain in the medium term is expected to first. With the level of development of photovoltaic technology advances, cost the industry chain also declined. At the same time, with the improvement of domestic and international PV application market, 2014 including polysilicon, wafers, cells and photovoltaic components and other products prices rebound in different ranges. Financial position, in 2014 Chinese PV manufacturers effectively improve capacity utilization, industry gross margins rebounded significantly, some enterprises capacity utilization up to 85%, gross margin over 20%.
Chart 32010–2014, China’s polysilicon, wafers, cells and module production situation
Third, in 2014 China’s import and export situation of photovoltaic products
International trade, although China for US and South Korea launched a polysilicon “double reverse”, but the processing trade imports unimpeded throughout the year, in 2014 China’s total imports of 102,177 tons of polysilicon, an increase of 26.7%, imports more than two billion US dollars, a record record. Exports, Japan has overtaken Europe to become China’s largest export market for PV, at the same time, many PV manufacturers are also turning their attention to the domestic market and the emerging markets. In 2014, total exports of PV modules to $ 14.46 billion, an increase of 17.54%. Although the export situation has improved, but we think the overall export situation is still not stable, more and more countries initiated trade barriers against China’s photovoltaic products, emerging market demand is still unable to play a supporting role in the short term, China’s photovoltaic industry export situation is not very optimistic.
Chart 42010–2014 PV modules in China in the export country (Unit: USD)
For exports accounted for half of China’s photovoltaic growth markets of Japan and the United States, Japan, the explosive growth of the photovoltaic market and the US PV “double reverse” implement measures to climb out before pulling effect is one of the main factors driving the photovoltaic export growth. The US “double reverse” has been made final, if not reach a settlement, the future of China’s PV exports to the US will show a significant decline. Although the Japanese market presents a large-scale explosive growth, but because of the high amount of subsidies and photovoltaic power consumptive problem, at any time because of limited financial resources and reduction of government subsidies, the future of the Japanese market continues to grow smaller space.
The European market for measures of limited price limit, not only the decline in China’s photovoltaic products in the European market competitiveness, and “double reverse” the initiator of the EU’s foreign trade sector is still encouraging Chinese enterprises to implement more stringent trade sanctions. At present, China’s photovoltaic products exports to the EU as part of the re-export to Japan, Malaysia and other places, according to the news that Europe is intended to step up the investigation of such circumvention measures, should succeed, China’s exports to the EU is not optimistic the situation will be even more. Together with other emerging markets affected financing political and policy stability and other factors, failed rapid rise, severe external circumstances photovoltaic products in China will export huge challenge.
Fourth, in 2015 the global photovoltaic industry trends
We believe that the global PV market in a “big country-led, market structure pluralism,” the direction of development, and different premium to the market price gap will narrow in 2015, China is expected to surpass Germany as the world superpower cumulative installed capacity. While oil prices may be governments planning department in the development of photovoltaic development plan important reference index, but for now, crude oil prices fell for PV demand fundamentals are less affected.
From the country-specific point of view, in 2015 China is expected to maintain its position as the world’s largest PV market, the national new photovoltaic grid installed capacity target of 15GW likely exceeded. In recent years, the rapid growth of the Japanese market by the limited supply of land, and the network and the upcoming tariff policy review and other issues, the country’s installed capacity in 2015 is expected to be between 6.5-7GW. Furthermore, since the slow implementation of the policy and the government hopes to avoid another market boom-bust scenario, emerging markets should not be overestimated. Although the development of photovoltaic industry dependence on subsidies will not produce significant changes in the short term, but with the recent rapid decline in the price of photovoltaic products, electricity costs are declining, the future government subsidies row
The impact strength of industry will gradually cut. IHS expects 2015 global PV installed capacity increased by 16% to 25%, between 53-57 GW.
Fifth, in 2015 the PV industry export risks
Overall, the photovoltaic industry is also at the same time the gradual recovery will continue to face trade frictions, economic fluctuations affect the industry trend, emerging market instability and other risks. 2015, in the case of PV products in China cost advantage by virtue of massive exports of some countries to reduce the impact of fluctuations on the domestic enterprises, the introduction of trade protection measures intend to be enhanced, leading to further increase the degree of trade friction. In addition, the global economic recovery will show a continued differentiation trend, while a country’s macroeconomic downturn in the photovoltaic industry will continue to conduction. Most importantly, the structure of most large export enterprises there is excessive concentration phenomenon, especially the United States and the Japanese market is inclined, the risk of excessive dependence on a single market is still prevalent.